Chinese Grand Prix Preview
Fernando Alonso won last year and Michael Schumacher spun out of the race. Renault will be hoping that history repeats itself on Sunday.
It doesn't seem very long ago that we were heralding the first Chinese Grand Prix and yet here we are anticipating the third. And because Shanghai is a track that nobody tests at, the result of this race is not a foregone conclusion.
The Shang circuit at Shanghai may have marvellous facilities, great overtaking opportunities and a towering grandstand, but it's still a bit like Sepang.
With just two points separating Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso now, there is everything to race for. Three months ago it didn't seem likely. But just as in 2003, Schumacher has had a great deal of help from fortuitous intervention to get back on terms with Alonso. First Alonso's car was banned, then he got mysterious grid deductions in Monza, what can happen next...?
Though Renault come into the race talking the big talk and trying to make the most of Michael's misfortunes at the Chinese track in 05, the momentum has still got to be with the Ferrari team. The red cars will be the ones to beat.
True, last year Michael had the kind of grand prix weekend that the worst Formula Ford debutant probably wouldn't endure. On the way to the grid he wasn't looking in his mirrors and sideswiped the innocent Minardi of Albers. In the race he spun out on lap 23 while following the Safety Car. Those critics who think that Schumacher is not in the same league as Prost, Senna, Moss, Stewart, Clark or Fangio certainly had enough to go on in one race alone.
The other memorable moment from last year was the drain cover that got sucked out of its culvert and put an end to Juan-Pablo Montoya's race, when he wrecked his front suspension on it. You can bet that won't happen again.
Fernando Alonso won here last year and will be looking to do the same again. He certainly has the motivation. However Michael has the motivation, too. The most driven F1 driver of his generation will be focusing his formidable powers of concentration on one outcome to the Chinese GP.
However there is a sliver of truth in what Pat Symmonds has said about Schumacher doing badly under pressure. In Championship showdowns before he has reacted badly when up against Hill, Villeneuve and Hakkinen. That is why it has been so important for Michael to have the No.1 status in the teams he's driven for. He doesn't want pressure from someone equipped with a car as good as the one he has got.
That is why he won't be driving on equal terms with Raikkonen in 2007. He doesn't want to endure that pressure for 17 races in a season. He's filled a Ferrari trophy cabinet his way and if the Scuderia won't give him what he wants, then he'll move on.
Apart from the Renault vs Ferrari duel at the front, there should be some good scuffling amongst Honda, McLaren and BMW-Sauber for the rest of the points. The fact that McLaren left it so long to nominate Pedro de la Rosa for the Chinese GP could well mean that they were seriously thinking of giving a couple of outings to GP2 Champion Lewis Hamilton before the end of the season.
They have nothing to lose in the Constructors' title race and even if Hamilton were to do badly in Japan and Brazil the close season will soon be upon us and everyone will forget. So in one way McLaren have two races for free. The team have always prided themselves on their marketing strength and two Spaniards in the cars in 2007 makes no marketing sense at all.
Fisichella and Kovalainen at Renault will be a much greater risk than Alonso and Hamilton would be.
BMW-Sauber have their own rising star in Robert Kubica who claimed his first podium in only his third race at Monza, a phenomenal achievement that got swallowed up in all the Schumacher retirement hubbub. Though it required Alonso's Renault to exit before he got the place, he drove stunningly well.
It is amazing to think that he could easily become Rookie of the Year in just five races. With Nelson Piquet Junior, Kubica, Hamilton, Vettel and Nico Rosberg in a car that doesn't always break down, the future of F1 looks bright.